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NISER Highlights Prospects for Nigeria’s Economic Recovery and Sustainable Growth at May NRSS
The Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research (NISER) has reaffirmed its commitment to providing evidence-based policy guidance for national development through the May 2026 edition of the NISER Research Seminar Series (NRSS), which examined the theme, “Prospects for the Nigerian Economy: 2026-2028.”
Held virtually on May 25, 2026, the seminar brought together researchers, policymakers, development practitioners, and stakeholders to discuss Nigeria’s medium-term economic outlook for the period 2026–2028. The event featured a presentation by Dr. Segun Awode of NISER’s Economic and Business Policy Department, with expert reviews by Professor Sulaiman Yusuf, an agricultural economist and policy consultant, and Elder David Adeosun, former Federal Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at the Federal Ministry of Budget and National Planning. The session was moderated by Mr. Louis Chete, while the Director-General of NISER, Professor Antonia Taiye Simbine, delivered the opening remarks.
In her opening remarks, Professor Simbine noted that the seminar reflects NISER’s longstanding tradition of macroeconomic forecasting, policy simulation, and quantitative economic analysis. She highlighted the Institute’s investments in developing indigenous capacity for macroeconomic modelling and policy analysis, emphasizing the importance of home-grown solutions to Nigeria’s development challenges.
The Director-General recalled that NISER had earlier projected that major reforms introduced since 2023—including fuel subsidy removal, exchange rate unification, and fiscal reforms—would generate positive outcomes despite short-term challenges. According to her, recent economic developments, particularly the moderation of inflation and improvements in fiscal performance, suggest that many of those projections are beginning to materialize.
She expressed cautious optimism about Nigeria’s economic outlook, noting that continued reform implementation, stronger revenue performance, infrastructure investments, and expansion of non-oil activities are expected to support gradual macroeconomic stabilization and economic recovery.
Presenting the report titled “Prospects for the Nigerian Economy, 2026–2028,” Dr. Awode explained that the projections were generated using the NISER Macroeconometric Model (Version ’24), a home-grown analytical framework designed to assess the interactions among key sectors of the Nigerian economy.
According to the projections, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate is expected to rise from 4.72 percent in 2026 to 4.85 percent in 2027 and 5.02 percent in 2028. The projected growth is expected to be driven by sustained reforms, infrastructure investments, expansion in productive sectors, improved investor confidence, and relative stability in the foreign exchange market.
The presentation stressed that while the projected growth rates exceed the country’s population growth rate, Nigeria would need significantly higher levels of growth to achieve transformational development, create quality jobs, and substantially reduce poverty.
Inflation Expected to Decline Further
A major highlight of the outlook is the expected moderation of inflationary pressures over the forecast period. Headline inflation is projected to decline to 11.66 percent in 2026 and fall to single-digit levels thereafter. Food inflation is also expected to moderate considerably as agricultural production improves and supply conditions stabilize.
Dr. Awode attributed the anticipated disinflation to exchange rate stability, improvements in domestic agricultural production, sustained monetary policy measures, and positive supply-side developments, including increased domestic refining capacity.
Nevertheless, the seminar noted that global uncertainties, particularly geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their effects on energy markets, remain important risks to the inflation outlook.
Fiscal Sustainability Improving but Challenges Remain
The outlook projects moderate improvements in fiscal sustainability indicators. The debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to stabilize at approximately 35–36 percent between 2026 and 2028, while the debt service-to-revenue ratio is projected to continue its downward trend following significant improvements recorded in recent years.
Despite these gains, concerns remain regarding fiscal deficits, which are projected to stay above the threshold prescribed under Nigeria’s Fiscal Responsibility framework. Participants emphasized the need to strengthen revenue mobilization, improve expenditure efficiency, and maintain fiscal discipline to ensure long-term debt sustainability.
The seminar also highlighted the importance of transparency in the utilization of subsidy savings, with participants calling for greater public accountability and clearer reporting on how reform gains are being invested in infrastructure, health, education, and social welfare.
Employment, Welfare, and Inclusive Growth
The report projects a gradual decline in unemployment over the forecast period, supported by expected growth in infrastructure, agriculture, and other productive sectors. However, discussants cautioned that improvements in headline unemployment figures may not fully capture the realities of underemployment and job quality.
Agriculture, Food Security, and Energy Transition
Food security emerged as a major area of discussion during the seminar. The presentation recommended increased investment in climate-smart agriculture, irrigation systems, greenhouse farming, improved storage infrastructure, and the adoption of digital and AI-driven agricultural technologies to boost productivity and reduce dependence on rain-fed farming.
The seminar also highlighted the need for investment in alternative and renewable energy sources. Rising energy costs, dependence on imported inputs, and broader energy challenges were identified as factors affecting productivity and competitiveness. Participants recommended greater investment in renewable energy technologies, biomass systems, and innovative energy solutions to support long-term sustainability.
The Discussant Session
Both discussants commended NISER for developing and sustaining a home-grown macroeconomic forecasting model capable of generating evidence-based projections tailored to Nigeria’s realities.
Professor Suleiman Yusuf described the initiative as a significant contribution to national policy analysis and praised the Institute for reducing dependence on external forecasting agencies. He noted that many of NISER’s previous projections had proven largely accurate and encouraged the Institute to continue strengthening its analytical frameworks.
Similarly, Elder Adeosun described the report as timely, practical, and policy-relevant, noting that its greatest strength lies in connecting economic projections with actionable policy recommendations.
At the same time, both discussants recommended strengthening future editions of the report through deeper scenario analysis, stronger welfare assessments, expanded qualitative research, enhanced attention to industrialization and the digital economy, and clearer explanations of the transmission mechanisms behind key projections.
Discussants further advocated stronger agricultural value chains, improved logistics systems, and enhanced support for smallholder farmers as critical measures for reducing food inflation and strengthening national food security.
Contributions from participants emphasized the need for stronger coordination among economic institutions, including NISER, the Central Bank of Nigeria, and relevant government ministries. There were also calls for improved real-time economic reporting, greater transparency in fiscal data, enhanced communication of reform objectives, and stronger mechanisms for monitoring economic performance.
Participants further highlighted the importance of leveraging private capital for infrastructure development, strengthening local government capacity, and ensuring that the benefits of economic growth are broadly shared across society
Participants repeatedly stressed that macroeconomic stabilization should not be viewed as an end in itself. Rather, economic reforms must ultimately translate into better living standards, quality employment opportunities, reduced poverty, and improved welfare outcomes for ordinary Nigerians.
Elder Adeosun emphasized that the success of economic reforms should be measured not only by improvements in macroeconomic indicators but also by their ability to improve household welfare and create inclusive development opportunities.
Responding to comments and recommendations, Dr. Awode welcomed the observations made by discussants and participants, noting that many of the issues raised would be incorporated into future editions of the outlook. He acknowledged the need for stronger scenario analysis, improved communication of policy transmission mechanisms, and deeper integration of welfare considerations into macroeconomic assessments.
Closing
In her closing remarks, Professor Oluwakemi Okuwa, Head of the Human Capital Department, emphasized the importance of continued collaboration between researchers, policymakers, and development stakeholders in shaping Nigeria’s economic future. She noted that the seminar demonstrated the value of indigenous analytical capacity and reaffirmed NISER’s commitment to rigorous research and evidence-based policy engagement.
The seminar concluded with a broad consensus that while Nigeria’s medium-term outlook presents encouraging signs of stabilization and recovery, sustaining growth will require policy consistency, fiscal discipline, enhanced productivity, stronger institutions, improved security, and deliberate efforts to ensure that economic progress translates into tangible improvements in the lives of citizens.
NISER features at the International Civil Service Conference 2026
The Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research (NISER) was well-represented at the 2026 International Civil Service Conference (ICSC), which took place on May 20 and 21, 2026, at the Eagle Square in Abuja, Nigeria.
Convened by the Office of the Head of the Civil Service of the Federation, the event’s theme was “Reforms, Resilience, and Results”. The event brought together senior government officials, policy experts, and delegates from across Nigeria, the US, UK, Singapore, Switzerland, and several other African and Asian nations.
Discussions were centered on digital transformation, institutional reforms, capacity building, and strengthening resilience within public sector institutions to deliver citizen-centered governance. It also featured high-level plenary sessions, technical roundtables, fireside chats, and exhibitions highlighting modern tools and innovations to improve public administration.
Register for Virtual NISER Research Seminar Series: Prospects for the Nigerian Economy, 2026-2028
Highly esteemed stakeholders,
The Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research (NISER) cordially invites you to its upcoming virtual edition of the NISER Research Seminar Series (NRSS) themed:
Prospects for the Nigerian Economy, 2026–2028
The seminar will present and discuss NISER’s latest medium-term macroeconomic projections for the Nigerian economy within the context of ongoing economic reforms, fiscal developments, global economic uncertainties, and emerging domestic challenges.
The session aims to provide a platform for constructive engagement among policymakers, researchers, academics, development partners, and private sector stakeholders on the outlook for output growth, inflation, fiscal sustainability, debt dynamics, and employment conditions over the 2026–2028 period.
We invite you to join this important conversation as we collectively explore policy options and generate evidence-based insights for sustainable economic growth and macroeconomic stability in Nigeria.
Date: Monday, 25 May 2026
Time: 11am
Venue: Zoom
Presenter: Dr Segun Awode (Research Fellow, Economic & Business Policy Department, NISER).
Discussant:
- Prof. Sulaiman Yusuf (Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Ibadan)
- Elder David T. Adeosun (Economist & Former Director, Macro, FMNP)
Kindly register for the seminar via the link below:
We look forward to your participation.
NISER TRAINS STAFF ON FIRE SAFETY MEASURES
The Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research, NISER, has equipped its staff with precautionary and safety measures in fire management. The fire sensitization workshop took place at the Institute’s Conference Room with two fire experts from Fire Tamers Company Limited, Ibadan, in attendance.
Declaring the workshop open, the Director-General of NISER, Professor A. T. Simbine, reiterated that the sensitization training was aimed at keeping staff informed and prepared against fire-related disasters within the Institute. She noted that the knowledge acquired during the workshop would also prove useful to staff members in their homes and while embarking on official trips.
The Director-General further stressed that there would be additional training on fire safety alongside first aid training to ensure adequate emergency preparedness and management. She emphasized that it is better to possess knowledge about fire safety than to remain ignorant and commended NISER’s fire marshals for successfully coordinating the workshop and welcomed all participants to the programme.
In his welcome address, the NISER Director of Administration, Mr. E. Udofia, emphasized the importance of the programme to participants. Mr. Udofia explained that the sensitization workshop was organized against the backdrop of a fire retreat organized by the Oyo State Fire Service, where selected NISER staff were sponsored by the Institute to undergo training. According to him, the purpose was to enable trained staff members to equip other staff with the necessary knowledge and skills on preventive safety measures against fire outbreaks and appropriate emergency response procedures within the Institute.
The fire sensitization workshop, themed “Promoting Fire Safety Culture and Emergency Preparedness in NISER,” featured four sub-themes, namely:
- Friendly Fire, Fiery Furnace,
- Developing a Fire Safety Culture in the Workplace,
- Basic Fire Safety Equipment and Their Uses,
- General Fire Safety Modules, First Aid, and Other Healthcare Measures, including Practical Demonstration of Fire Control Techniques and Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR) Procedures.
Key highlights from the fire awareness programme included educating participants on the various classes of fire, the importance of switching off electrical appliances in workplaces and homes, regular inspection of wiring and equipment to detect damages, maintaining clean workspaces to reduce fire outbreaks, proper storage of flammable materials, testing fire alarms regularly to ensure functionality, raising alarms promptly upon spotting fire outbreaks, and the installation and proper use of fire extinguishers.
The six NISER fire marshals, namely Dr. Samuel Ochinyabo, Dr. Mustapha Oludare, Mr. Dishon Aliyu, Dr. Benedicta Isunueo, Mr. Kayode Adetunji, and Mr. Opoola Moruf, delivered excellent presentations during the workshop.
Practical sessions on different methods of extinguishing fire were also conducted using blankets, foam fire extinguishers, water fire extinguishers, and CO₂ extinguishers.
Participants were additionally taught CPR techniques to assist accident victims, including the appropriate recovery position, correct chest compression methods, and rescue breathing procedures. An interactive question-and-answer session was held, during which participants asked several questions that were satisfactorily addressed by the facilitators.
The programme came to an end with a closing remark delivered by Dr. Benedicta Isunueo, who thanked everyone for their active participation and encouraged continuous adherence to fire safety practices.
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NISER Examines Implications of US/Israel–Iran Conflict
The Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research (NISER) held a Virtual Policy Dialogue on Tuesday, May 5, 2026, bringing together policymakers, researchers, industry professionals, and members of the public to assess the economic and geopolitical consequences of the ongoing US/Israel-Iran conflict for Nigeria and other developing economies.
The dialogue was declared open by NISER’s Director-General, Prof. Antonia Simbine, who underscored the urgency of evidence-based policy conversations during periods of global uncertainty. She noted that developing countries like Nigeria are particularly exposed to the ripple effects of geopolitical crises and reaffirmed NISER’s commitment to providing timely research and guidance to government and stakeholders.
Understanding the Crisis and Its Global Impact
The lead presentation was delivered by Dr. Iyabo Olanrele, a Senior Research Fellow at NISER, who outlined the scale and scope of the disruptions triggered by the conflict. Central to the crisis has been Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz; a critical chokepoint through which approximately 20 percent of global oil supply is transported. This has driven crude oil prices sharply upward and set off a chain of consequences across global energy markets.
Dr. Olanrele highlighted that the fallout extends well beyond energy markets. Global inflation has risen, growth projections have been revised downward, and supply chains have been strained across multiple sectors. Reduced LNG supply and surging fertilizer prices have added further pressure on global food security, while aviation and tourism have been hit hard by rising jet fuel costs and widespread airspace closures across the Middle East.
Nigeria’s position in this crisis is complex. As an oil-exporter, the country stands to gain a fiscal windfall from higher crude prices. Despite the Dangote refinery’s substantial capacity, Nigeria’s persistent reliance on imported refined products and the refinery’s own need for imported crude feedstock leave the economy exposed to global fuel price shocks, domestic inflation, and exchange rate pressures. This dual reality (benefiting as a producer while suffering as a consumer) represents a significant policy dilemma that panelists expounded throughout the dialogue.
Panel Discussion: Energy, Aviation, and Geopolitics
The panel discussion, moderated by Prof. Godwin Akpokodje, drew on expertise from academia, policy, and industry across three key thematic areas.
Professor Salamatu Isah examined the energy dimension of the crisis, warning that Nigeria lacks the production capacity to fully capitalize on the current oil price surge. She called for a strengthening of domestic oil and gas infrastructure, sustained support for local refining through the naira-for-crude policy, and the revival of fiscal buffers such as stabilisation funds to cushion the economy against future shocks.
Dr. Steve Olusegun Ogidan addressed the crisis’s impact on aviation, tourism and hospitality industries, describing it as one of the most severe disruptions the sector has seen in modern times. He pointed to the sharp rise in jet fuel costs, extended flight routes, and widespread airspace closures as major cost drivers for airlines. He warned that Nigeria risks losing its potential as a regional aviation hub, citing its weak infrastructure and paradoxical practice of exporting jet fuel while facing domestic shortages. His proposed response centred on five pillars: energy supply chain security, financial support for airlines and tourism businesses, route diversification, promotion of domestic tourism, and the use of technology and data for pricing and risk management.
Professor Rufa’i Ahmed Alkali offered a broader geopolitical perspective, arguing that the conflict reflects deep-seated power struggles rather than a sudden escalation. He noted a discernible shift in the global order away from rules-based multilateralism toward power-driven dynamics, with traditional Western dominance giving way to the growing influence of China, Russia, and regional blocs. For Nigeria, he recommended a non-aligned foreign policy, strategic independence, and a focus on long-term national planning rather than short-term gains from oil windfalls.
Key Takeaways from the Open Discussion
The interactive session reinforced several of the panel’s core themes. On Nigeria’s foreign policy stance, it was said that the country is currently maintaining a neutral position, engaging informally in oil trade without officially aligning with any global bloc. Panelists advised that Nigeria’s priority should be to leverage the crisis economically — expanding market share and growing foreign reserves — rather than entering into geopolitical alignments that could have long-term consequences.
Participants also raised questions about how much of the projected oil windfall Nigeria has actually captured, and whether the country can truly be considered energy-secure given its partial reliance on imported refined products. Panelists acknowledged that structural inefficiencies and import dependence are likely to offset much of the revenue benefit, reinforcing the view that Nigeria remains energy-vulnerable despite being an oil exporter.
The conversation also touched on a persistent concern: the gap between expert recommendations and actual government policy. While no definitive answer was given, panelists stressed that bridging this gap requires stronger institutional frameworks, genuine political will, and a long-term orientation in national planning.
Conclusion: A Shared Call for Structural Reform
Across all sessions, a consistent message emerged: Nigeria’s central challenge is not a shortage of opportunities but a set of deep structural weaknesses that prevent the country from capitalising on them. Panelists and participants alike called for economic diversification, greater energy independence through improved domestic refining capacity and strategic reserves, investment in critical infrastructure, and more effective policy implementation.
There was also a broader continental dimension to the discussion. Professor Isah noted that many African countries are rethinking their alliances and investing in regional energy partnerships citing the Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline as one example as part of a wider push toward strategic and economic self-reliance.
The dialogue concluded with a collective call for Nigeria to move away from reactive policymaking toward building energy sovereignty and resilient systems capable of absorbing recurring global shocks. As panelists emphasised, crises in the Middle East are neither new nor unpredictable and Nigeria’s response must reflect that reality.
INERA Management Team Pays Courtesy Visit to NISER
INERA Management Team Pays Courtesy Visit to NISER
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