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Balancing Electricity Tariffs and Consumers’ Wallets: Insights from Nigerian Households and Firms

The Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research (NISER) hosted the August 2025 edition of its Research Seminar Series (NRSS) on Tuesday, August 26, 2025. The seminar, themed “Balancing Electricity Tariffs and Consumers’ Wallets: Insights from Nigerian Households and Firms’ Ability to Pay,” brought together policymakers, industry leaders, academics, consumer advocates, and the media to deliberate on one of Nigeria’s most pressing policy challenges: energy affordability.

The session was chaired by Dr. Hassan Mahmud, President of the Nigerian Association for Energy Economics, with a presentation by Dr. Iyabo Olanrele, and contributions from discussants Dr. Ekundayo Mesagan and Dr. Mohammed Santuraki.

Opening Context

In her opening remarks, NISER’s Director-General, Prof. Antonia Taiye Simbine, highlighted the critical role of energy security, affordability, and sustainability in Nigeria’s economic transformation. She noted that electricity is “non-negotiable” for livelihoods and enterprise, from small barbershops and welding workshops to large industries. However, tariff adjustments following the April 2024 increase for Band A customers have sparked heated debates about affordability, equity, and service reliability.

She cited key findings from the NISER-commissioned study:

  • Average daily energy supply stands at 10 hours—well below the promised 20 hours.
  • 79% of households consider the new tariff unaffordable.
  • Solar adoption has increased by 22%, while petrol use also rose by 9%, reflecting both resilience and new pressures on households.
  • Firms reported that electricity costs contribute to an average of 82% of monthly production expenses.
  • Though 87% of firms observed improved grid supply, reliability remains inconsistent.

Prof. Simbine stressed that tariff reforms must be guided by the ability to pay, warning that inclusivity, service reliability, and competitiveness will remain elusive if consumer realities are ignored.

 
Key Findings from the Study

Presenter Dr. Iyabo Olanrele provided deeper insights from fieldwork conducted in Lagos and Kano States, two major commercial hubs. Among households surveyed, the average monthly income was about ₦290,000, with many experiencing sharp increases in energy expenditures following the tariff hike. In Lagos, 88.7% of households reported being unable to afford the new rates, compared to 72.9% in Kano.

For firms, electricity expenses were identified as a major driver of high production costs, with many turning to solar alternatives to remain competitive. However, reliance on petrol generators also rose, raising concerns for Nigeria’s transition to greener energy systems.

 

Perspectives from Discussants and Stakeholders

The discussants added depth to the analysis.

Dr. Santuraki underscored the disconnect between tariff hikes and actual service delivery, arguing that affordability must remain central to reform. He stressed the need for targeted subsidies and improved transmission infrastructure.

Dr. Mesagan commended the study’s evidence base, noting its relevance for both national and global research, while also urging for broader geographical coverage and deeper analysis of alternative energy costs and barriers.

Stakeholders from the electricity sector, consumer advocacy groups, and regulatory agencies also contributed. Representatives from the Ibadan Electricity Distribution Corporation (IBEDC) and Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading (NBET) highlighted infrastructure and liquidity challenges, while consumer advocates called for tariffs to reflect service actually delivered, not just regulatory determinations.

 

Policy Implications

Several policy directions emerged from the discussions:

  • Link tariffs to service reliability by ensuring that DISCOs make measurable infrastructural investments before adjustments.
  • Support vulnerable households and firms with incentives and targeted subsidies.
  • Leverage the 2023 Electricity Act to expand decentralized grids and renewable energy systems.
  • Strengthen purchasing power through minimum wage reforms and social protection measures.
  • Address energy theft and transmission bottlenecks to stabilize the power sector value chain.

 

Closing Reflections

The seminar reinforced NISER’s role as a hub for evidence-based policymaking. The lively exchanges between scholars, policymakers, operators, and consumers underscored the urgency of balancing cost-reflective tariffs with social equity.

As the Chair, Dr. Mahmud, summarized that tariff reforms must not only recover costs but also deliver tangible benefits to consumers, otherwise Nigeria risks undermining productivity, equity, and growth.

The August 2025 NRSS ended with renewed commitment to shaping energy reforms that are both economically sound and socially just.

NISER Researchers Prepare for Nationwide Fieldwork on Youth Futures Project

The Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research (NISER) is partnering with the Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER) in a pioneering research initiative responding to the Mastercard Foundation’s call for advancing “Youth Futures in Dignified and Fulfilling Work in Africa.”

As part of the Nigerian component of the project, NISER researchers are set to embark on a nationwide field study, covering 20 states across the country. The research will explore how indigenous and informal enterprises contribute to employment creation, skills development, and innovation within local economies.

On August 21, 2025, NISER held a training workshop for the research team selected to conduct the qualitative field survey. The session provided participants with in-depth orientation on the project’s objectives, methodology, and tools for data collection.

The data collection would include:

  • Focus group discussions (FGDs) with youth engaged in indigenous enterprises;

  • Key informant interviews (KIIs) with entrepreneurs, policymakers, policy implementers, NGOs, and development partners;

  • Consultations with financial service providers, industry enablers, universities, and informal sector training associations.

During the training, each instrument was carefully examined, and researchers discussed techniques for effectively engaging respondents in diverse cultural and business contexts. Participants also took part in role-playing exercises designed to simulate field interactions and strengthen interviewing skills. Trainers provided feedback on interviewing approaches, note-taking, and ethical considerations, while highlighting the peculiarities researchers might encounter across Nigeria’s regions.

The training concluded with a renewed sense of purpose among participants, who expressed enthusiasm for contributing to this transformative project. The Youth Futures study promises to provide critical insights that can guide policy reforms, youth employment programmes, and enterprise support mechanisms in Nigeria and across Africa.

Register for NISER RESEARCH SEMINAR SERIES: August 2025 Edition

The August 2025 edition of the NISER Research Seminar Series (NRSS) is approaching.

Theme: BALANCING ELECTRICITY TARIFFS AND CONSUMERS’ WALLETS: Insights from Nigerian Households and Firms’ Ability to Pay

Seminar Chair: Dr. Hassan Mahmud, FCIBN (President, Nigerian Association for Energy Economics, Abuja, Nigeria)

Discussant: Dr. Ekundayo Peter Mesagan (Senior Faculty, School of Management and Social Science, Pan-Atlantic University, Lagos)

Presenter: Dr. Iyabo Olanrele (Senior Research Fellow, Economic & Business Policy Department, NISER, Ibadan)

Date: Tuesday, 26th August, 2025
Time: 10am prompt
Venue: NISER Conference Room and Online via Zoom

We look forward to hosting you at this hybrid event. 

To participate online or on-site, click below to register:

L’Analisi di Scommezoid sulle Dinamiche delle Scommesse UFC

L’universo delle scommesse sportive ha vissuto una trasformazione radicale con l’ascesa delle arti marziali miste, in particolare dell’UFC. Scommezoid, attraverso la sua analisi approfondita delle dinamiche di scommessa, ha identificato pattern unici che caratterizzano questo sport rispetto alle discipline tradizionali. Le peculiarità dell’UFC creano opportunità e sfide distintive per chi studia le quote e i movimenti del mercato delle scommesse.

L’Evoluzione del Mercato delle Scommesse UFC

Dal suo debutto nel 1993, l’Ultimate Fighting Championship ha attraversato diverse fasi evolutive che hanno profondamente influenzato le dinamiche delle scommesse. Inizialmente considerato uno spettacolo di nicchia, l’UFC ha gradualmente conquistato il mainstream, portando con sé una crescita esponenziale del volume di scommesse. Scommezoid ha documentato come il passaggio dalla proprietà dei fratelli Fertitta a quella di Endeavor Group nel 2016 per 4 miliardi di dollari abbia segnato un punto di svolta decisivo.

La professionalizzazione del settore ha comportato l’introduzione di protocolli anti-doping più rigorosi attraverso l’USADA, modificando sostanzialmente le prestazioni degli atleti e, di conseguenza, l’affidabilità delle previsioni. L’analisi di Scommezoid evidenzia come eventi storici quali la sospensione di Jon Jones per doping nel 2017 abbiano creato precedenti che influenzano tuttora la valutazione del rischio nelle scommesse su fighter con trascorsi controversi.

L’espansione internazionale dell’UFC ha aperto nuovi mercati geografici, ciascuno con le proprie caratteristiche culturali e normative. Eventi come UFC London o UFC Paris hanno generato pattern di scommessa specifici, legati al supporto del pubblico locale e alle differenze nei fusi orari che influenzano la partecipazione degli scommettitori.

Fattori Unici delle Scommesse MMA

Le arti marziali miste presentano variabili che le distinguono nettamente da sport più prevedibili come calcio o tennis. Scommezoid ha identificato oltre quaranta fattori che possono influenzare l’esito di un incontro UFC, dalla lunghezza dell’allungo dei fighter alla loro capacità di adattamento durante il combattimento. La natura multidisciplinare delle MMA, che combina striking, grappling e wrestling, crea scenari dove un atleta dominante in una fase può trovarsi in difficoltà in un’altra.

Un elemento cruciale emerso dall’analisi è l’impatto del “octagon jitters”, il nervosismo che colpisce i debuttanti UFC. Statisticamente, i fighter al loro primo incontro nell’ottagono mostrano performance inferiori alle aspettative nel 68% dei casi, un dato che ha rivoluzionato l’approccio alle scommesse sui newcomer. La pressione mediatica e l’adrenalina dell’ambiente UFC creano condizioni uniche che non trovano paralleli in altri sport.

Il fenomeno del “lay-off rust” rappresenta un altro aspetto distintivo: fighter che rimangono inattivi per periodi prolungati spesso mostrano prestazioni compromesse al ritorno. L’analisi di Scommezoid su un campione di 500 incontri ha rivelato che pause superiori ai 18 mesi correlano con una diminuzione del 23% nelle performance metriche standard. Questo dato assume particolare rilevanza nel contesto delle UFC scommesse Italia, dove la comprensione di questi pattern può fare la differenza tra una valutazione accurata e una superficiale.

Metodologie di Analisi Avanzata

Scommezoid ha sviluppato un framework analitico che integra dati quantitativi e qualitativi per valutare le dinamiche UFC. Il sistema considera metriche avanzate come significant strikes per minute, takedown defense percentage e average fight time, combinandole con fattori psicologici e ambientali. L’utilizzo di algoritmi di machine learning ha permesso di identificare correlazioni non evidenti nell’analisi tradizionale.

Un aspetto rivoluzionario dell’approccio Scommezoid è l’analisi del “momentum shift” durante i combattimenti. Attraverso lo studio frame-by-frame di oltre 1000 incontri, è stato possibile mappare i momenti critici dove le dinamiche di un match cambiano drasticamente. Questi insights hanno applicazioni dirette nelle scommesse live, dove la capacità di anticipare i turning point può generare opportunità significative.

L’integrazione di dati biometrici e nutrizionali ha aperto nuove frontiere nell’analisi predittiva. Il monitoraggio delle variazioni di peso durante i camp di allenamento, combinato con l’analisi delle abitudini alimentari dei fighter, ha rivelato pattern predittivi con accuratezza superiore all’80%. Questi metodi rappresentano l’evoluzione naturale dell’analisi sportiva applicata alle scommesse UFC.

Impatto della Tecnologia e dei Social Media

L’era digitale ha trasformato radicalmente il panorama informativo che circonda l’UFC. Scommezoid ha documentato come l’analisi dei social media possa fornire indicatori predittivi sulla forma fisica e mentale dei fighter. Post su Instagram, interazioni su Twitter e persino l’analisi del sentiment nei commenti possono rivelare informazioni preziose sulla preparazione di un atleta.

La tecnologia di streaming e la diffusione globale degli eventi UFC hanno democratizzato l’accesso alle informazioni, ma hanno anche creato un’overdose informativa che richiede capacità di filtraggio sofisticate. L’algoritmo sviluppato da Scommezoid per processare il flusso di dati in tempo reale rappresenta un’evoluzione necessaria in questo contesto iperconnesso.

L’introduzione della realtà virtuale negli allenamenti UFC sta generando nuovi parametri di valutazione. Fighter che utilizzano tecnologie VR per simulare scenari di combattimento mostrano miglioramenti misurabili nella capacità di adattamento tattico, un fattore che sta diventando sempre più rilevante nelle valutazioni pre-match.

L’analisi di Scommezoid sulle dinamiche delle scommesse UFC rivela un ecosistema in continua evoluzione, dove la comprensione profonda dei fattori tecnici, psicologici e ambientali rappresenta la chiave per navigare efficacemente questo mercato complesso. La natura imprevedibile delle arti marziali miste, combinata con l’evoluzione tecnologica e mediatica del settore, crea un panorama ricco di opportunità per chi possiede gli strumenti analitici appropriati. Il futuro delle scommesse UFC dipenderà sempre più dalla capacità di integrare dati tradizionali con insights innovativi, rendendo l’approccio scientifico di Scommezoid un modello di riferimento per l’industria.

NISER Partners with ISSER to Launch Multi-Country Study on Youth Futures in Indigenous Enterprises

On Tuesday, July 29th, the Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research (NISER), in collaboration with the Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER), Ghana, hosted a high-level stakeholder engagement event at its headquarters in Ibadan. The programme forms part of a Mastercard Foundation-funded, multi-country study on Youth Futures in Dignified and Fulfilling Work in Africa, with particular focus on the sub-theme- Indigenous enterprises within the informal economy. This sub-theme has ISSER, Ghana as the project lead.

The project spans six African countries—Ghana, Senegal, Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda, Ruwanda and Nigeria—and seeks to deepen understanding of youth participation in specific indigenous enterprise sectors- beauty and cosmetics, textiles, agro-based enterprises, and crafts. The Nigerian component of the project is being implemented by the Nigerian Institute of Social & Economic Research (NISER). Other country level implementing partners include:

Ethiopia: Policy Studies Institute (PSI)

Senegal: Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles/Bureau d’analyses Macro-Economiques (ISRA BAME)

Rwanda: African Development Consultant (ADC)

Uganda: Uganda Development Trust (UDET)

Kenya: International Centre for Evaluation and Development (ICED)

 

Introducing the Study to Key Nigerian Stakeholders

The objective of the workshop was to formally introduce the study to relevant stakeholders at institutional, sectoral and operational level. These include federal and state level MDAs, private organizations, enterprise support organizations, accelerators, incubators and technology providers. The gathering offered a platform to share the scope of the study, elicit feedback, and foster stakeholder collaboration.
In her opening remarks, Professor Antonia Taiye Simbine, Director-General of NISER, underscored the vital role that informal enterprises play in Nigeria’s economy. She described them as “spaces where innovation, resilience, and cultural expression thrive,” and emphasized the importance of engaging local stakeholders in shaping the study’s data collection approach to ensure it is inclusive, participatory, and rooted in local context.
Prof. Simbine also expressed optimism about the workshop’s potential to lay the foundation for long-term partnerships during the course of the study

Context and Scope of the Study

Dr. Tolulope Jerumeh, the technical lead for the NISER research team, provided an overview of the study’s design and objectives. She explained that the research targets African youth aged 18 to 35 who are engaged in indigenous enterprises, specifically within informal settings. Nigeria’s leg of the study will cover all six geopolitical zones and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), using a mixed-methods approach that combines both quantitative and qualitative data.

According to Dr. Jerumeh, the study will leverage primary and secondary data to explore youth aspirations, barriers to sustainable livelihoods, and opportunities for dignified work in the indigenous enterprises of interest.

Stakeholder Roles and Feedback

Following the study overview, Dr. Segun Awode outlined the anticipated roles and contributions of stakeholders, including policymakers, youth organizations, industry leaders, and sectoral experts. His presentation highlighted the value of cross-sectoral collaboration in generating insights that are not only academically robust but also actionable.

The workshop concluded with a lively interactive session, during which participants posed questions and offered suggestions on areas where they could support the project. These included collaboration in field data collection, stakeholder mapping, sector-specific insights, and knowledge dissemination.

A Step Toward Inclusive Policy and Youth Empowerment

The successful hosting of this stakeholder workshop reinforces NISER’s commitment to producing research that is relevant, participatory, and policy-driven. The Institute looks forward to contributing to the broader continental conversation on youth employment and to collaborating with ISSER and other country level implementing partners in charting a pathway to dignified and fulfilling work for Africa’s youth.

Enhancing Research Capacity: NISER Hosts Training on R Software for Researchers

The Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research (NISER) took a significant step forward in enhancing its research capabilities this week. From May 27-28, the Research Management Department organized an intensive 2-day training workshop focused on R Software applications for data analysis.

This strategic training initiative emerged from NISER’s commitment to maintaining cutting-edge research standards. The workshop addressed three critical needs within the research community:

Evolving Research Landscape: As research methodologies continue to advance, particularly in big data analytics, traditional software tools like SPSS, E-Views, and Stata sometimes fall short of handling complex, multi-dimensional datasets that modern policy research demands.

Growing Industry Adoption: The social sciences have witnessed an increasing trend toward R Software adoption, with researchers achieving more sophisticated analyses and deeper insights from their data. NISER recognized the importance of aligning with this global shift.

Institutional Learning: Building on the success of the April 2024 research methodology training and insights from the 2024 Team Research Projects (TRPs) and Individual Research Projects (IRPs), the institute identified a clear need to strengthen its researchers’ technical capabilities.

The workshop was expertly facilitated by Dr. Peter Ogundunmade from the Department of Statistics at the University of Ibadan. Drawing from his extensive experience with R Software and RStudio, Dr. Ogundunmade guided NISER researchers through:

  • Data Manipulation Techniques: Essential skills for preparing and organizing research data
  • Exploratory Data Analysis: Methods for understanding data patterns and relationships
  • Univariate Analysis: Statistical techniques for single-variable examination
  • Advanced Statistical Methods: Comprehensive approaches to complex data analysis

The training emphasized practical application through hands-on exercises, ensuring researchers could immediately apply their new skills. Participants gained firsthand experience with R’s versatile applications and learned to integrate these powerful tools into their ongoing research projects.

This investment in technical training reflects NISER’s dedication to producing high-quality, methodologically sound research that can inform Nigeria’s development policies. By equipping researchers with advanced analytical tools, the institute  seeks to strengthen its capacity to tackle complex socio-economic challenges and contribute meaningful insights to national development discourse.

The workshop represents another milestone in NISER’s continuous effort to blend traditional research excellence with modern technological capabilities, ensuring its research remains relevant, rigorous, and impactful in today’s data-driven world.

Research Futures Seminar Explores Ethical AI Use in Research at NISER

Research Futures Seminar Explores Ethical AI Use in Research at NISER

In a forward-looking effort to equip its research staff with critical digital skills, the Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research (NISER) hosted a comprehensive two-day seminar titled “Research Futures: Balancing Original Thinking with the Use of AI Tools” from April 22–23, 2025.

The first installment of the seminar was held on April 16th and led by Dr Nato Pachuashvili (Associate Professor, International Black Sea University, Tbilisi, Georgia; & Head, Language Centre at European University, Tbilisi, Georgia). In an intensive session, she took NISER researchers through the uses, platforms and opportunities that artificial intelligence provides for researchers in their everyday tasks and research work.

The second installment of the seminar series, held on April 22nd and 23rd, at the NISER Conference Room in Ibadan, was facilitated by Successory Nigeria Ltd and led by renowned expert Dr. Steve Ogidan, with co-facilitation by Ms. Boluwasefe Raji.

The training aimed to demystify artificial intelligence (AI) tools and guide researchers on their effective and ethical application in academic work. Key sessions addressed foundational AI concepts, the risks of bias and overreliance, ethical considerations, and prompt engineering techniques. Through interactive practical sessions, participants explored AI tools such as Claude AI, Jenni, Scispace, Perplexity, and Copilot, learning how to apply them in real research scenarios including literature review, data synthesis, and project design.

Notably, the seminar emphasized that while AI can enhance productivity and creativity, it must not replace critical thinking or originality. Discussions also examined the emerging policy landscape surrounding AI use, referencing frameworks such as Nigeria’s National AI Strategy and international best practices.

The Director-General of NISER, who actively participated throughout the seminar, encouraged responsible adoption of AI, underscoring its potential to transform research quality and timeliness when used judiciously. The event concluded with the presentation of appreciation gifts to the facilitators and a renewed commitment to integrate AI ethics and innovation into NISER’s research culture.

How can we help you?

Contact us at the NISER office nearest to you or submit an inquiry online.

On behalf of NISER, I would like to welcome you to the institute’s website, which presents the institute’s profile, activities, and output. NISER is an agency of the Federal Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning and receives supervision specifically from the ministry.
Prof. Antonia Taiye Simbine
Director-General
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