
The Central Bank of Nigeria CBN has aggressively raised the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR)—reaching a record 27.50 percent by late 2024—to combat persistent inflation and stabilise the Naira (CBN, 2024). The investigation into the CBN’s frequent adjustments of the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) in response to changing economic conditions is necessary to know whether the CBN is effectively stabilising the economy or unintentionally making it more volatile through the frequent interest rate changes. It is a test of policy effectiveness, which is crucial because MPR shifts directly affect purchasing power and the cost of living. Higher rates make loans for small businesses and individuals more expensive, which can lead to reduced spending and slower job creation, a cardinal dividend of democracy under the Renewed Hope Agenda of the government.
This policy brief assesses the cyclical nature of Nigeria’s monetary policy using time series data from a NISER study covering 2010-First Quarter to 2024-Third Quarter to determine its effects on inflation and output volatility, and the speed of adjustment to stability.